According to the New York Times, and as the graphic above illustrates, the key states in the upcoming election are Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Virginia. Here's why:
Nevada: 5 electoral votes
Both sides see this state as highly competitive. Democrats held a caucus there, which may be to their advantage. Nevada has a large Hispanic population -- a traditionally Democratic group. Obama is only slightly leading in the polls as of September 21st, 46% to 45%. However, in the 2004 election the Republican vote came out on top %50.5 to %47.9. The state also has a Republican governor, Jim Gibbons, and more Republican representatives in Congress than Democrats.
Colorado: 9 electoral votes
President Bush won this state by less than 5 points in 2004, though the Democrats are making a big push this time around. The state is becoming steadily more Democratic along with the rising population of Hispanics there. Obama is currently leading in the polls 51% to 47%, though the numbers were nearly reversed in the 2004 election -- Democrats 47%, Republicans %51.7. The state has a Democratic governor, Bill Ritter, and more Democrat than Republican representatives in Congress.
New Mexico: 5 electoral votes
President Bush defeated John Kerry by less than %1 in New Mexico in 2004, while Al Gore won by %0.1 in 2000. The state's governor, Bill Richardson, is a big Obama supporter which could prove instrumental come November. Like Nevada and Colorado, it has a big Hispanic population. As of September 15, Obama was leading in the polls %49 to %42.
Ohio: 20 electoral votes
President Bush won this state by small margins in 2000 and 2004. However, the Republican Party has been tainted by scandal in Ohio, including former Governor Bob Taft's criminal convictions while in office, which could prove detrimental to Mr. McCain. As of September 16th, Obama was leading in the polls by 2%. The state currently has a Democratic governor and more Republicans than Democrats hold Congressional seats.
New Hampshire: 4 electoral votes
McCain won primaries in New Hampshire in 2000 and 2008, partially by appealing to independents who were permitted to vote in either primary. These voters may prove beneficial in the November election. According to the New York Times, "McCain may hold an advantage because he has always liked New Hampshire, and residents have reciprocated." However, Obama is currently leading in the polls %48 to %44. The state has a Democratic governor.
Virginia: 13 electoral votes
Traditionally a red state, McCain is currently leading in the polls %47 to %44. However, the large African-American population suggests that Obama has a chance to win the state. Virginia currently has a Democratic governor, Tim Kaine, and more Republican than Democrats representatives in Congress.
...click on the info graphic to see it bigger!
2 comments:
Feature with original info graphic and 455 words.
Many pundits are saying that Ohio will decide the election. Interesting piece. Thanks.
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