Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Obama may be down in the polls, but...

He's still looking solid in the electoral college math. Media outlets focus on the Gallup daily tracking poll and others to make broad declarations about how the race is swinging in one direction or another, but the electoral math has remained relatively unchanged.

According to Pollster, an aggregate polling site that combines all of the polls done statewide, Obama has a 238-224 advantage in the electoral college, with 76 states up for grabs. Compare that with Obama being down in the daily tracking poll, 46 percent to 47 percent.

Below is a list of links to find polling on the race and for determining electoral math.

Pollster
The polling aggregate site has polling data for all 50 states and provides an average of all the polls for each state, which they use to determine who is winning the state. Convenient layout and an easy-to-use map make this site one of the best for polling information.

The New York Times Electoral Math
The Times has analysis for every state that's in play, explaining why it's a battleground state, which candidate has the upper hand and past elections' polling information.

Gallup's Election 2008 Central
Gallup releases a daily tracking poll rating each candidate. In addition, they make demographic trends and other analysis available.

Five Thirty Eight
Another aggregate polling site, considered one of the most comprehensive.

Intrade
Intrade is a prediction market website, also called a political futures trading exchange. It measures public perceptions of traders think the public is perceiving candidates. John McCain's value might increase if traders think he has a greater chance of winning, despite whether they think he'd make a good president. Intrade is widely watched by political blogs, and correctly predicted the result of every single Senate race in 2006.

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